Performance Analysis of Data Mining Techniques for Improving the Accuracy of Wind Power Forecast Combination

نویسندگان

  • Ceyda Er Koksoy
  • Mehmet Baris Özkan
  • Dilek Küçük
  • Abdullah Bestil
  • Sena Sonmez
  • Serkan Buhan
  • Turan Demirci
  • Pinar Senkul
  • Aysenur Birturk
چکیده

Efficient integration of renewable energy sources into the electricity grid has become one of the challenging problems in recent years. This issue is more critical especially for unstable energy sources such as wind. The focus of this work is the performance analysis of several alternative wind forecast combination models in comparison to the current forecast combination module of the wind power monitoring and forecast system of Turkey, developed within the course of the RITM project. These accuracy improvement studies are within the scope of data mining approaches, Association Rule Mining (ARM), Distance-based approach, Decision Trees and k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) classification algorithms and comparative results of the algorithms are presented.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

The Variance-covariance Method using IOWGA Operator for Tourism Forecast Combination

Three combination methods commonly used in tourism forecasting are the simple average method, the variance-covariance method and the discounted MSFE method. These methods assign the different weights that can not change at each time point to each individual forecasting model. In this study, we introduce the IOWGA operator combination method which can overcome the defect of previous three combin...

متن کامل

Forecasting Gold Price using Data Mining Techniques by Considering New Factors

Gold price forecast is of great importance. Many models were presented by researchers to forecast gold price. It seems that although different models could forecast gold price under different conditions, the new factors affecting gold price forecast have a significant importance and effect on the increase of forecast accuracy. In this paper, different factors were studied in comparison to the p...

متن کامل

Combination of Transformed-means Clustering and Neural Networks for Short-Term Solar Radiation Forecasting

In order to provide an efficient conversion and utilization of solar power, solar radiation datashould be measured continuously and accurately over the long-term period. However, the measurement ofsolar radiation is not available to all countries in the world due to some technical and fiscal limitations. Hence,several studies were proposed in the literature to find mathematical and physical mod...

متن کامل

Improving Data-based Wind Turbine Using Measured Data Foggy Method

The purpose of this paper is to improve the modeling of the data-driven wind turbine system that receives data from noise signals. Most of the data on industrial systems is noisely and data noise is inevitable and natural. The method and idea proposed in this paper, Data Fogging, significantly reduce the impact of noise on data-driven wind turbine system modeling, which is the basis of this met...

متن کامل

Analysis of Wind Speed Forecasting Error Effects on Automatic Generation Control Performance

The main goal of this paper is to study statistical indices and evaluate AGC indices in power system which has large penetration of the WTGs. Increasing penetration of wind turbine generations, needs to study more about impacts of it on power system frequency control. Frequency control is changed with unbalancing real-time system generation and load . Also wind turbine generations have more flu...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2015